Page 42 - Araştırma Raporu 2019

1.2 WORLD ECONOMY RANKING
WORLD ECONOMY
1.1 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
· The Fed raised the policy rate by 25 basis points in
line with the expectations at the last meeting of the
year. The number of Fed members' forecast hike for
2019, which was three before, has dropped to two.
· Indicators that global economic activity is losing
momentum negatively affect risk perception
· The budget tension between Italy and the EU, which
was on the agenda throughout November, ended with
the adoption of the new budget Italy submitted to the
EU.
· While the decline in oil prices continued in December
despite the OPEC and non-OPEC producers' decision
to cut production, gold prices increased in the last
month of the year.
· In the January update of the World Economic
Outlook report, the IMF set its global growth forecast
as 3.5% and 3.6%, down 0.2 and 0.1 points for 2019
and 2020, respectively. Organization stating there
would be deeper than expected economic contraction
in Turkey , did not disclose growth forecast for our
country
· The British Parliament, which did not approve the
Brexit agreement, accepted the proposals for the
country not to leave the EU on March 29 without an
agreement and to re-negotiate the rejected Brexit
agreement by solving the Northern Ireland problem.
· While the Fed's dove tone has increased the trend
towards US Treasuries, the reversal of the slope of the
yield curve has raised recession concernsIn February,
the central government budget posted a deficit of 16.8
billion TL.
· Despite the expectations that trade negotiations
between the US and China could result in an
agreement in the near future, US President Trump's
threat to raise taxes on China in early May raised
questions about the process.
· It has been decided that the UK's exit date from the
EU will be delayed until 31 October, with the approval
of the EU leaders.
· OECD and World Bank lowered their global economic
growth forecast for 2019. Organizations also their
growth estimates Turkey's economy was seen to revise
downward. Turkey's economy will shrink by 2.6% this
year, the OECD predicted that the World Bank's
estimate of the reduction in the level of 1%.
4 5
COUNTRY NAME GSYH
USA 21.345 Billion $
China 14.217 Billion $
Japan 5.176 Billion $
Germany 3.964 Billion $
· The US and Chinese heads of state, at their meeting
India 2.972 Billion $
at the G-20 summit, reached a consensus to continue
England 2.829 Billion $
trade negotiations, alleviating concerns about the
trade war. France 2.762 Billion $
· Leading data announced in China indicate that the Italy 2.026 Billion $
slowdown in economic activity continued in the Brazil 1.960 Billion $
second quarter of 2019..
Canada 1.739 Billion $
· With Boris Johnson taking office as Prime Minister in
the UK, the possibility of no-deal Brexit strengthened.
· Central banks of developing countries, especially Turkey is located 20th with the $706 billion worth of GDP
Asian countries, which have been adversely affected ranks in the world.
by the trade wars, also support economic activity by
lowering interest rates.
· The International Monetary Fund revised its global
growth expectations downward for 2019 and 2020.
Significantly lowering its growth expectations for
developing countries, the organization lowered its
growth rate forecast for global trade volume by 0.9
points this year.
· Rising tension in the trade war triggers demand-
driven concerns, putting downward pressure on oil
prices.
· Oil prices, which rose rapidly after the attack on
Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, declined with the
announcement that the loss of production would be 1.3 THE MOST PROSPEROUS COUNTRIES
compensated within 2-3 weeks. Gold prices generally
followed a downward trend in September. COUNTRY NAME
· In the third quarter of the year, the Euro Area Another criterion of global existence is
economy recorded a moderate growth of 0.2% on a high welfare. In order to determine the FINLAND
quarterly basis. level of welfare, criteria such as DENMARK
· Brexit, scheduled for October 31, has been economic quality, business environment,
postponed again. The British Parliament decided to NORWAY
political environment, education, health,
hold general elections before Brexit, which was IZLAND
postponed to the end of January. security, personal freedom, social
· Despite the measures taken by the government, the capital, natural environment should be NETHERLANDS
Chinese economy lost momentum in the third quarter evaluated. And as a result of this SWISS
of the year and grew by 6% on an annual basis.
evaluation, the welfare level of the
· China's Central Bank cuts short-term borrowing SWEDAN
costs for the first time since 2015. countries is determined every year. NEW ZELAND
· The OECD announced its 2019 and 2020 global
growth forecast at the level of 2.9%. Finland is chosen as the country with CANADA
the highest level of welfare in 2019. AUSTRIA
Turkey is located 79th rank on this list.